不動産投資に必要な概念:DCF
投資不動産の世界でDCF(ディスカウント・キャッシュフロー)という言葉をよく聞きますが、DCFが何なのか、明確にはご存じでない方が多いようです。例えば、私は先日、あるセミナーでDCFについて話すように頼まれました。90分ほどの講義で、何を話せばよいのかと尋ねたところ、主催者からトピックのリストが送られてきました。
そこには、
キャップレート、FCR(総収益率)
CCR(自己資本配当率)
DCR(借入償還余裕率)
IRR(内部収益率)
NPV(正味現在価値)
PB(資金回収期間)
LTV(借入金割合)
K%(ローン定数)
レバレッジ分析
BER(損益分岐入居率)
と書かれていました。
最初このリストをいただいたときには、なるほどと思ったのですが、ふと気が付いてみると、この中でDCFに関係があるのは、IRRとNPVだけでした。そのほかのトピックは、DCFとの少なくとも直接的な関係はありません。日本では、DCFと言う言葉の定義がはっきりしていないのかもしれないと思いました。しかし、これらすべてを勉強しなければ、不動産投資の基本的な意思決定ができないというのも事実です。先日書いたブログ「コンベイアンス・タックス」でも、「還元」と「割引」と言う言葉を使いましたが、何のことかわからなかった方が多いと思います。
と言うわけで、一度に全部説明することは不可能ですが、これから時々このような不動産投資に必要な概念を、少しずつブログで説明したいと思います。これらのブログは、知識を積み上げ行きますので、順番に読んで行った方が分かりやすいと思います。特定のトピックに興味を持って、読んでみたが分からないという場合は、それ以前のブログで取り扱われている何かの知識が欠けているということですので、最初から、あるいは少し遡って読むことをお勧めします。
大切な概念:キャップレート
上記のリストの最初にキャップレートというのがありますが、この中では、たぶんもっともよく聞く言葉で、また概念的にも非常に大切で、しかも簡単なものだと思いますので、今日はその紹介をしたいと思います。
実は、キャップレートと、もう一つ出てきたFCR(Free & Clear Rate of Return)とは、同じ、あるいは似たものです。FCRは総収益率と訳されることもありますが、文字通りの意味は無抵当率、つまり、物件にローンがない場合の収益率という意味です。他に、OAR(Overall Rate of Return)も総収益率と訳され、同じ意味です。自己資本だけでなく、負債の部分も含めた資本全体、不動産の場合は物件の総価値の収益率という意味です。また、ROA(Return On Asset)も同じ意味で、総資産収益率と訳されているようです。
ずいぶんたくさん同じ意味で使われている言葉ありますが、その意味は何なのでしょうか。これらの率は、すべてNOI(Net Operating Income)、つまり営業純利益を物件の価値で割って出します。
NOIとは、満室賃料から空室と未回収損を引き、さらに運営費を引いた残りです。NOIの代わりにNCF(NOI-資本的支出)を使う場合もあり、価値の代わりに、購入価格+取得コストを使うこともありますので(特にFCR)、相手がどういう意味で使っているのか、確認した方がよいでしょう。日本でよく使われる表面利回りとは異なりますので、ご注意ください。
R(キャップレート)、I(NOI)、V(価値)の関係
キャップレート、NOI、価値の間には、以下の関係があります。
R(キャップレート)=I(NOI)÷V(価値)
I=V×R
V=I÷R
では、どのように使うのか、例を使って説明しましょう。上記の三つの式の順序に沿って説明します。年間NOIが1億円で、評価額が10億円の物件があるとします。この物件のキャップレートは、1億÷10億=0.1、つまり10%です。
ある投資家が10億円で売りに出ている物件の購入を検討しています。この投資家は、キャップレートが7%以上でなければ買いたくありません。ということは、10億×0.07=7千万の年間NOIがあるという見込みがなければ買わない、という決断をするということになります。
最後に年間1億円のNOIがあるビルを、オーナーが売ろうと考えています。その地域の類似物件は5%のキャップレートで売買されています。ということは、1億円÷0.05=20億円で売れるだろうということです。
キャップレートという言葉の意味
これで使い方はわかったと思いますが、キャップレートのことばの文字通りの意味を説明しておきましょう。キャップレート(Cap Rate)とは、Capitalization Rateを略したもので、資本化率とか、(資本)還元率とか訳されます。つまり、NOIを資本化したら、あるいは資本に還元したらいくらになるかを計算するためのもので、売買で物件の価値を出すときにこの言葉を使うことが多いと思います。それ以外の言葉、FCRやOARなどは、価値とNOIに基づいて、物件の収益率を出す時に使われることが多いでしょう。
キャップレートが低いほど物件の価格は高い
そんなことよりも、もっと大切なことを説明しましょう。キャップレートは、先ほどの例でも分かるように、低いほど物件の価値は高くなります。その逆もまたしかりです。キャップレートは、市場によって決まりますが、景気が良いか悪いかだけで簡単に決まるものでもありません。日本には、あまり利回りの良い投資がほかにないので、物件の利回りの低い、つまりキャップレートが低くても、他に良い代替投資がありません。ですから、5%の総収益率があればまずまずという環境であれば、年間1億円のNOIがある物件を買う場合、1億÷0.05=20億円払ってもいいということになります。
しかし、アメリカの場合、もっと利回りの良い代替投資がほかにありますので、5%では低すぎると思うかもしれません。実際、ニューヨークやサンフランシスコのような大都会でなければ、8%くらいのキャップレートでないと売れないということもあるでしょう。その場合、1億円のNOIがある物件を買うとすると、1億÷0.08=12.5億円しか払わないということになります。つまり、同じ収益のある物件を、キャップレートが高い分だけ、安く買えるということになります。
日米の比較はこれほど簡単なものではなく、キャップレート自体はそれほど大きな違いはないかもしれません。しかし、先進国で唯一人口の増えている米国と、もう減り始めている日本とでは、購入時のキャップレートが同じでも、将来性が全然違います。キャップレートは1年分の収入しか計算に入れない指標ですので、将来のことは分かりません。DCFは、将来のことも計算に入れる物件評価の仕方ですが、それはもう少し他のことも勉強してからにしましょう。
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